The third tier of English football is unpredictable. It’s often a league of fallen giants navigating the consequences of years of financial mismanagement, competing against shrewdly run traditional lower-league clubs, new money, and the odd minnow.
Given the disparity in club size, resources, and transfer budgets, it might seem like an easy ride for clubs that have dropped from the Premier League and Championship. But this is rarely the case. Birmingham City, this year’s clear favourite, has already broken the League One transfer record twice this summer. Like Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, and Sunderland before them, they are expected to storm their way to the title.
Yet, all these clubs, despite their relative size, endured lengthy spells in the third tier. Nottingham Forest, for instance, faced a humiliating 2007 semi-final play-off defeat to Yeovil Town during their three-year stint. Sunderland, as documented on the hit Netflix show Sunderland ‘Til I Die, lingered in the third tier for four seasons. Leeds, who had played in the Champions League only a few years prior, needed three seasons to get promoted out of League One.
In League One, it is often the dark horses who sneak into the play-offs or get their recruitment spot-on over several windows, upsetting the frustrated fallen giants. This unpredictability makes the third tier as intriguing as it often is.
So, who are the dark horses that could go under the radar and sneak into the play-off spots next spring?
Lincoln City
The Imps are one of the best-run clubs in the lower leagues. This is perhaps best exemplified by the sacking of just one manager in the past ten seasons while continuing to make gradual, sustained progress.
It feels inevitable that, at some point, Lincoln will get their recruitment spot on and sneak into the Championship for the first time in their history—and there’s reason to believe this could be their year.
Michael Skubala, a highly regarded former Leeds United coach, guided his Lincoln side on a staggering 16-game unbeaten run at the end of last season, narrowly missing out on the playoffs on the final day.
With the summer arrivals of Dom Jefferies, an industrious box-to-box midfielder, Tom Bayliss, a creator who impressed at Shrewsbury Town last season, and JJ McKiernan, who’ll add dynamism to Lincoln’s attack, supporters will surely be quietly confident of sneaking into the play-offs in April next year.
Prediction: 6th
Leyton Orient
The East London club’s success hinges on one man: Richie Wellens. While the club has developed a reputation for being efficient in their dealings over the years, their success has been drastically amplified by their 44-year-old manager.
During Wellens’ three full seasons in charge of English Football League sides, he’s won the League Two title twice and achieved an impressive 11th-place finish in League One last season, as the O’s briefly flirted with the play-offs.
Wellens is looking to continue evolving his Leyton Orient side. He allowed his loyal, dependable right-back Rob Hunt to depart to strengthen with the arrival of the impressive Sean Clare from Wigan Athletic. The additions of Diallang Jaiyesimi and youngster Sonny Perkins will add flair to Orient’s attack.
Leyton Orient, as typical of a Wellens team, lacks depth. The manager prefers to pack quality into a small squad and gamble on getting lucky with injuries, then carrying players he does not believe will perform his tactical messages.
Prediction: 8th